Citigroup: copper to $5 this year; $5.50 by 2010

A report on Mineweb.com says Citigroup is predicts "the copper price is bottoming, and will move sharply higher in 2009 and 2010."

Citigroup increased its price forecast for copper from US$3.50 to $5 per pound in 2008, from $3 to $5.50 per pound in 2010, and upped its long term price from $1.45 to $1.60 per pound.

One of the driving forces is continued rapid economic growth in underdeveloped nations. Citigroup says Chinese copper demand is expected to increase at around 15% per year.

Another factor is that copper production does not seem to be growing to keep pace with demand.

New book: "Anatomy of the Grand Canyon"

A copy of Ken Hamblin's magnificent new book, "Anatomy of the Grand Canyon: Panoramas of the Canyon's Geology" arrived today, and after a couple of minutes flipping through it, I knew I had to take it home and savor it leisurely.

The 143 page, large format book is dominated by dozens and dozens of two-page panorama photos from the river, the canyon rims and from the air. Each panorama has an accompanying geologic cross-section to put it all in perspective. Ken has admirably achieved his goal of creating a dazzling geologic tour that is understandable and inviting to the completely uninitiated reader who opens the cover, while still fascinating to the most jaded geologist. The book is visual. Beautiful block diagrams and shaded relief maps show the geology and geomorphology, juxtaposed with striking photos. Text is limited, simple, but compelling.

The picture above is a bit misleading. It is actually more elongated that it appears, ensuring the panoramas are maximized on the page. The production standards are wonderful, although Vulcan's Throne is spelled "Volcans Throne" on p111, the Hurricane Fault is difficult to delineate from another in one of the cross sections, and the figure caption formation names are cut off on p135. These are trivial problems in an otherwise beautiful and engaging volume that I expect to pick up again and again.

The book is published by Grand Canyon Association and sells for $49.95. We expect to carry it in our stores in Tucson and Phoenix.

Hearing set on Resolution Copper land exchange

A bill to exchange public and private lands to allow the Resolution Copper mine to be developed will have a hearing in the Senate Subcommittee on Public Lands and Forests on July 9 in Washington DC. The bill (S3157) was introduced last month by Sen. Jon Kyl to try to resolve issues holding up the mining operation.

The Arizona Republic newspaper this morning ran an editorial entitled "Shiny Outlook," noting the economic benefits of the mine and endorsing efforts to work out the environmental and cultural issues that may be affected. Interestingly, they praised the average $60,000 wages expected for the 1,200 workers at the mine.

In contrast, last week, the Tucson Citizen ran an editorial blasting the proposed Rosemont copper mine south of Tucson for it's expected $59,000 average salaries, arguing that surely some workers would make a lot more than that, so others would actually be making low wages with no benefits, and we don't need more low wage employers.

I urge you to read and compare the two editorials.

New Mexico geothermal plant to power Phoenix

The first commerical geothermal power plant in New Mexico is expected to deliver 10 megawatts to the Phoenix area by December.

Raser Technologies Inc. of Provo, Utah will provide the power to Salt River Project to supply about 5,500 homes.

The 2,500-acre Lightning Dock geothermal field in Hidalgo County has 41 wells with water temperatures from 250 to over 300 degrees (F). It has supplied hot water to greenhouses in the area for many years and generated binary power for local use. Raser expects to expand the facility to maximize the resource at a later date. [photo: binary power unit at Lightning Dock field. Credit, Geo-Heat Center]

Proposal: a federal Earth Systems Science Agency

A group of highly respected former federal science officials is calling for merger of the USGS and NOAA into an Earth Systems Science Agency. The proposal is in the new issue of Science:

The United States faces unprecedented environmental and economic challenges in the decades ahead. Foremost among them will be climate change, sea-level rise, altered weather patterns, declines in freshwater availability and quality, and loss of biodiversity. Addressing these challenges will require well-conceived, science-based, simultaneous responses on multiple scales, from global and national, to regional and local. The executive and legislative branches of the federal government and of the states will have to transcend bureaucratic boundaries and become much more innovative in developing and implementing policy responses

We strongly believe organizational changes must be made at the federal level to align our public institutional infrastructure to address these challenges. The most pressing organizational change that is required is the establishment of an independent Earth Systems Science Agency formed by merging the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

The lead author on the Science proposal is Mark Schaefer, a former acting director of the USGS and senior official in the Interior Dept. Mark and I served on the National Research Council’s Board on Earth Sciences and Resources (BESR) a few years ago, and with Steve Bohlen, then head of the Joint Oceanographic Institutions, wrote a letter to the chair of BESR, urging a re-examination of the federal earth science agencies.

Among the recommendations we made in the July 4, 2005 letter were:

Overall, we see the need for better coordinated policy formulation and implementation for the national earth science enterprise. The geological, hydrological, and biological work of the USGS, coupled with the oceanic and atmospheric work of NOAA, offers a potentially integrated approach to earth science.

Arizona geo students receive GSA research awards

A number of Arizona geology students are receiving awards from the Geological Society of America:

• Alexander Sisson Research Award (to support research in Alaska and the Caribbean) to Eric Helfrich at NAU
• Harold T. Stearns Fellowship Award (for student research in the circum-Pacific region) to David Pearson, UA
• Charles A. 7 June R.P. Ross Research Fund (to support research in biostratigraphy) to Heidi Roop, NAU

Arizona students receiving GSA Division Student Awards are:

• Hydrogeology Division Student Research Grant Award to Kyle Brown, UA
• Quaternary Geology & Geomorphology Division, J. Hoover Macklin Student Research Award to Rebecca Franklin, UA

Keep your eye on China

China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing 11% per year compared to 2.2% in the U.S. pushing that nation to strategically invest in Research & Development (R&D) and to invest in natural resources around the world. China is currently behind the U.S. in percentage spent on R&D, compared to the U.S. 2.5 - 3% of GDP, but they are catching up.

Those numbers and conclusions are from Gene Whitney, the only geologist in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Gene spoke to the state geologist's annual meeting in West Virginia last week, on the general topic of U.S. science spending in the global arena. He told us that the U.S. government and industry spend about $353 billion annually on R&D, 1/3 of the world's total spending of $1.1 trillion. Interestingly, industry's share of domestic R&D surpassed the federal share in 1979-80 and now accounts for 65% of total R&D. Also interesting is that energy, minerals, water and other earth science related fields are not in the top 25 areas.

The impact of Gene's remarks were echoed by a talk by Jon Price of Nevada that described extensive Chinese investments in U.S. mines and minerals as one of many efforts by that nation to ensure they have the resources needed to sustain the growth of their economy. Vince Matthews of Colorado echoed Jon's talk with numerous additional examples.

One of the common topics in hallway conversations was about what the Chinese were buying in each state. I couldn't identify a specific Chinese investment in Arizona minerals, but noted that India-based Sterlite has the winning bid so far for Asarco. India often gets less attention than China but has its own global efforts to acquire control of strategic resources.

Jon Price anticipates increased economic competition with China and others. Gene Whitney noted that the U.S. has not had a global political rival for years now, comparable to the USSR in the Cold War or the Nazis in WWII. Those political struggles led to the Apollo and Manhattan projects respectively. These were not science projects per se, but benefited science tremendously. Gene urged us to keep an eye on China as an increasing competitor for global resources. That's what motivates politicians, and what could lead to increased expenditures for R&D.

Arizonan's exploding asteroid theory strengthened by new evidence

A controversial theory put forth by Arizona-based geophysicist Allan West a few years ago is looking more likely with new evidence found in recent weeks. West proposed that a comet or asteroid explosion just above the earth's surface at the end of the last Ice Age 12,900 years ago created a massive shock wave and heat pulse that set large parts of the northern hemisphere ablaze.

A new report from the University of Cincinnati says anthropology professor Ken Tankersley, working with Allen West and Indiana Geological Survey Research Scientist Nelson R. Schaffer, has verified samples of diamonds, gold and silver that have been found in sites in Ohio and Indiana offers the strongest support yet for the exploding comet/asteroid theory. The samples are conclusively sourced back to the diamond fields region of Canada, based on X-ray diffractometry in the lab of Univ. of Cinncinnati geology professor Warren Huff . The only plausible scenario available now for explaining their presence this far south they say, is the kind of cataclysmic explosive event described by West's theory.

[photo: A "black mat" of algal growth in Arizona marks a line of extinction at 12,900 years ago; Clovis points and mammoth skeletons were found at the line but not above it. Credit: Allan West, UCSB]

Tempe-based McIntosh sold to Stantec

Tempe-based McIntosh Engineering, a mining service company, has been acquired by design firm Stantec for an undisclosed amount. McIntosh has more than 200 employees in Arizona and Canada, and specializes in serving many of the largest, deepest, and most technically challenging mines in the world. In 2007 McIntosh gross revenues were approximately C$32 million.

McIntosh gives Stantec a foothold in the active mining sector. According to the Stantec press release, McIntosh is a leader in underground mining engineering and services range from mine conceptualization through mine feasibility, detail engineering and design for construction, procurement and construction management. The firm's specialties include underground mining methods, mine development, deep shafts, materials handling systems and complete infrastructure in support of underground operations.

McIntosh produced a downloadable book on underground hard rock mining, The Hard Rock Miner's Handbook, which contains twenty-nine chapters covering geology through mining, mine development, infrastructure, and mineral processing.

Geological Surveys facing challenges in economy, security, policy

Nick Tew, the State Geologist of Alabama, is the incoming president of the Association of American State Geologists, and this morning he sent out a letter to AASG members outlining his goals and priorities for the next year. Below are a few excerpts from that letter:

"Our country and the world face many challenges over the coming years and the nation’s geological surveys have a huge role to play in addressing a number of these challenges. Among these are energy, mineral, and water resources and supplies; natural hazards; and climate change, but there are also many others.

"...there has been no other time in the history of this nation, save perhaps in the early days when our predecessors were engaged in the initial delineation and development of our natural resources, that the work of the geological surveys was more important than it is today. We are uniquely positioned to make significant contributions as we seek to provide for the long term societal well-being, economic viability, and overall security of the United States.

"...the collective voice of the State Geologists is indeed powerful. Our voice and perspectives are unique and we enjoy great respect as providers of unbiased scientific information that can inform and influence the development of sound public policy. Our challenge, however, is to make our voice heard in an authoritative and effective way and, as we know, this is an area where we can improve. It is critically important, especially during this time of significant transition in the body politic, that we carefully and thoughtfully craft our message and organize in a way that assures that this message is delivered effectively and efficiently."

Historic mining town of Crown King threatened by fire

The small town of Crown King, one of the last inhabited small mining towns in Arizona, is being evacuated because of approaching wild fires. The town was named after the mine that operated there in the late 1800s. [right, crownking.com]

The community with about 100 year-round residents, is accessed by an unpaved road about 90 miles northwest of Phoenix.

ASU, UA scientists unlock secrets of Mercury geology

The new issue of Science carries a special section on the results of the MESSENGER mission to Mercury, which arrived in January and imaged half of the part of the planet that was not seen by the Mariner 10 spacecraft in the 1970s.

Geology professor Mark Robinson at ASU is lead author on one paper in the journal that discovered widespread volcanism across Mercury. Impact craters are common, but Robinson and co-authors conclude that much of the planet was resurfaced by volcanic activity that is either low in iron, or where the iron is locked up in non-silicate minerals.

UA planetary geologist Robert Strom is lead author on a companion paper examining crater densities that supports the conclusion that planetary resurfacing by volcanism took place after the early bombardment phase.

[right: volcanism in Caloris impact basin (C); white arrows mark locations of young smooth plains whose composition appears related to the Caloris plains. Small volcanic centers formed by explosive eruptions (black arrows). Dark blue areas are older rocks that may be rich in the mineral ilmenite. Credit, NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Arizona State University/Carnegie Institution of Washington]

Asarco - big decisions still to come

Indian-based Sterlite Industries execs have been in Arizona looking at their possible new purchase – Asarco LLC. The Arizona Daily Star reported yesterday that Sterlite proposes doubling production at Asarco facilities. Asarco operates three copper mines in Arizona and is the 3rd largest copper producer in the U.S.

Meanwhile, the judge handling the case also said Asarco parent Grupo Mexico could offer its own bankruptcy reorganization plan after July 2.

Rosemont debate: "Tucson is not a pretty town"

Jack Caldwell is a columnist who writes "I Think Mining" (subtitled: Sharp opinions about mines and mining). On July 1, he wrote about news reports on the public hearing on the proposed Rosemont copper mine, concluding, "in the best American tradition we have the silliest of reasons given for not building the mine." He lambasts mine opponents over what he considers inane comments but he also takes a few shots at Tucson, saying,

"Tucson is not a particularly pretty town. In mid-summer heat the dusty roads and look-alike shopping centers shimmer and visually pollute your view." [above, credit B. Smith, UA]

He also hasn't been here in quite a while, because he seems to think the mine will be somewhere around Davis Monthan Air Force Base: "My recollection of that area is a huge airfield and more old planes than than you can count and then industrial sprawl and then nothing. Maybe I just never got past the industrial sprawl."

So far, no one has posted comments to his column about this piece.

Copper briefly over $4; pundits put Freeport in play

A nation-wide strike at copper mines in Peru pushed copper to $4.08 a pound before falling back to $3.95 as workers starting returning to work. Peru's 3rd largest mine, Freeport McMoRan's Cerro Verde pit [right, credit Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold], joined the strike on Wednesday, which pushed the company's stock down. As a result, stock pundits started discussing a disconnect between the price of copper and Freeport's stock price. As a result, there is speculation that Freeport is an attractive takeover target.

It was just a couple weeks ago that rumors spread about Brazilian based Vale looking at making a bid for Freeport, a story Vale later denied.

Geological Surveys – better than Velcro?

USGS Director Mark Myers says the economic value of geological data put into the public marketplace is greater than the multiplier on investment on many breakthrough products, including Velcro [right, patent figures for Velcro. Credit Velcro.com].

His comment came in a talk to the annual meeting of state geologists in West Virginia this week, where he extolled the value of bringing objectivity and peer reviewed information to the table in a wide array of tough issues facing the country. Authoritative data carries weight, he said, because of so much spin and non-authoritative data in the highly-charged, partisan political environment we have today. This has to be communicated accurately he said, but simply and quickly to have an impact. One challenge for geoscientists is that pretty, but non-authoritative, pictures can be compelling and give a false sense that there are easy solutions to complex issues.

Geoscience data preservation

Arizona is one of 35 states building a catalogue of geological and geophysical data and samples. The preliminary inventory of in-house AZGS data and materials is mostly complete and is being compiled for submission to the National Geological and Geophysical Data Preservation Program at the USGS. We will also make it available via the AZGS. [right, USGS]

A second component of our effort is to identify geoscience data and samples in agencies, organizations, and companies across Arizona, especially that which may be vulnerable to being lost or discarded.

At the state geologist’s annual meeting earlier this week, John Steinmetz from the Indiana Geological Survey and Tammy Dickinson from USGS reported that the beta test version of the National Data Catalogue is already populated with information on 400 collections from state geological surveys, the USGS, and BLM. That number should skyrocket as most of the states wrap up their initial inventories and submit their results to the digital catalogue.

A second year of the cooperative project will get underway late this summer with 28 states, including Arizona, developing metadata for each of our collections to make the catalogue a dynamic discovery tool. We expect to use the national catalogue as one of the discovery tools for the digital Geoscience Information Network that AZGS is building with USGS and the international consortium OneGeology.

BLM calls off moratorium on solar energy

BLM’s 2-year moratorium on solar energy projects on its lands in 6 western states, including Arizona, lasted almost a week. Yesterday, in the face of widespread opposition, BLM changed its mind. [right, Abengoa's trough technology solar collectors, planned to cover 1,900 acres near Gila Bend, Arizona]

The moratorium initially was endorsed by some environmental groups concerned about large-scale industrial energy developments on federal lands with little of the oversight and public input that accompanies other types of development such as mining and petroleum. [right:

The New York Times described BLM’s 100 million acres as “empty lands” certainly giving the impression they are barren and worthless for almost any other use. That’s a far cry from many environmentalists description of federal lands as pristine and ecologically critical.

There are a reported 130 solar projects proposed across the West with little of a track record to anticipate all the potential environmental impacts. On the other hand, solar energy officials note that BLM has never permitted a single solar plant and the moratorium could be a huge blow to the fledgling industry, just when traditional energy sources such as coal-fired power plants are under increasing pressure over climate change concerns.

Should we view this as a sign of a willingness to accept some environmental consequences in order to achieve a presumed greater environmental benefit?

14 questions about science for the presidential candidates

Science Debate 2008 released the top 14 questions the presidential candidates should answer about science. The group has asked for written responses that will be published by them and for them to be discussed in a nationally televised forum.

Questions cover broad topics of science policy, economic and national security but specific areas where Earth scientists have expertise to bring to the debate, including energy [right, US DOE-EIA], water, and climate change. Here are the questions:

1. Innovation. Science and technology have been responsible for half of the growth of the American economy since WWII. But several recent reports question America’s continued leadership in these vital areas. What policies will you support to ensure that America remains the world leader in innovation?

2. Climate Change. The Earth’s climate is changing and there is concern about the potentially adverse effects of these changes on life on the planet. What is your position on the following measures that have been proposed to address global climate change—a cap-and-trade system, a carbon tax, increased fuel-economy standards, or research? Are there other policies you would support?

3. Energy. Many policymakers and scientists say energy security and sustainability are major problems facing the United States this century. What policies would you support to meet demand for energy while ensuring an economically and environmentally sustainable future?

4. Education. A comparison of 15-year-olds in 30 wealthy nations found that average science scores among U.S. students ranked 17th, while average U.S. math scores ranked 24th. What role do you think the federal government should play in preparing K-12 students for the science and technology driven 21st Century?

5. National Security. Science and technology are at the core of national security like never before. What is your view of how science and technology can best be used to ensure national security and where should we put our focus?

6. Pandemics and Biosecurity. Some estimates suggest that if H5N1 Avian Flu becomes a pandemic it could kill more than 300 million people. In an era of constant and rapid international travel, what steps should the United States take to protect our population from global pandemics or deliberate biological attacks?

7. Genetics research. The field of genetics has the potential to improve human health and nutrition, but many people are concerned about the effects of genetic modification both in humans and in agriculture. What is the right policy balance between the benefits of genetic advances and their potential risks?

8. Stem cells. Stem cell research advocates say it may successfully lead to treatments for many chronic diseases and injuries, saving lives, but opponents argue that using embryos as a source for stem cells destroys human life. What is your position on government regulation and funding of stem cell research?

9. Ocean Health. Scientists estimate that some 75 percent of the world’s fisheries are in serious decline and habitats around the world like coral reefs are seriously threatened. What steps, if any, should the United States take during your presidency to protect ocean health?

10. Water. Thirty-nine states expect some level of water shortage over the next decade, and scientific studies suggest that a majority of our water resources are at risk. What policies would you support to meet demand for water resources?

11. Space. The study of Earth from space can yield important information about climate change; focus on the cosmos can advance our understanding of the universe; and manned space travel can help us inspire new generations of youth to go into science. Can we afford all of them? How would you prioritize space in your administration?

12. Scientific Integrity. Many government scientists report political interference in their job. Is it acceptable for elected officials to hold back or alter scientific reports if they conflict with their own views, and how will you balance scientific information with politics and personal beliefs in your decision-making?

13. Research. For many years, Congress has recognized the importance of science and engineering research to realizing our national goals. Given that the next Congress will likely face spending constraints, what priority would you give to investment in basic research in upcoming budgets?

14. Health. Americans are increasingly concerned with the cost, quality and availability of health care. How do you see science, research and technology contributing to improved health and quality of life?

Most Americans subject to geologic hazards

Natural hazards losses exceed tens of billions of dollars each year in the U.S. and are growing as population centers develop more lands at high risk of geologic hazards. That's a conclusion from state geological surveys and the USGS meeting here in West Virginia. [right, highway SR87 landslide, south of Payson, 2008. Photo by Brian Gootee, AZGS]

That assessment is based on such factors as

• Landslides and other slope failures occur in every state, causing billions in damage
• 
  
• 80 million Americans are subject to earthquakes
  

• 52 volcanic eruptions occurred in U.S. in the last 200 years. These are in the West and Hawaii, but downwind impacts can affect large areas with big populations.

• Hazardous minerals are a growing concern – i.e., radon gas, arsenic, asbestos, and mercury. More are being liberated to the environment as lands are being torn up for develoment.

The call is for geological surveys to provide more comprehensive community hazard assessments, increase our monitoring and assessment roles, and improve our education efforts with policy makers and the public. Recommendations are for state surveys to inventory all types of hazards and dollar loses, prepare hazard inventory maps, and to examine legislation for hazard mapping to define zones where geologic investigation is required before structures can be built