Copper prices have been on a rip, according to Mineweb.com, with prices rebounding to over $2 per pound yesterday. That makes almost every copper mine in the world able to operate profitably, based on a cash-cost at the mine basis.
But the near future is confusing. Yesterdays rise is attributed to belief that recession forces are easing. Forecasters at the consulting group CRU say prices should peak at $4,500 per tonne during 2nd quarter of 2009. [right, native copper. Photo by Jonathan Zander]
Another report offers that estimates of global demand are "universally pessimistic and range from Codelco's (Chile's largest producer) 4% decline to CRU's estimate of a very sharp 15-20% drop." The primary blame seems to be a drop in construction.
And the analyses we'll read on Monday may be completely different. If only I were more prescient.