Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Oil production plateau, natural gas demands

Scott Tinker, State Geologist of Texas, and the president of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists told the state geologists (AASG) annual meeting this morning that he projects global oil production is just about to plateau at a rate of 85-90 million barrels today [right, lower graph]. This is a lower rate than predicted by the National Petroleum Council and the DOE Energy Information Agency.

As a result, he sees oil declining as a per cent of total energy consumption to about 30% by the year 2030. Natural gas is expected to replace oil to meet fossil energy demands.

After Scott's presentation, Colorado State Geologist Vince Matthews briefed us on natural gas production. Vince showed that 90% of natural gas consumption worldwide has occurred since 1964, with 50% of global consumption since 1990. He offered detailed production results that raise concerns whether natural gas production will be able to meet increasing global demands.

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