ASU's Matt Fouch moves on to Carnegie Institution

Matt Fouch, a nationally renowned professor of seismology in the ASU School of Earth and Space Exploration (SESE) has moved to the Dept. of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institution of Washington, in Washington DC, as a Staff Scientist.

Matt has been a leader in the IRIS Consortium and is currently Chair of the EarthScope/USArray Advisory Committee.

Morning jolt

Some folks need their morning joe to get going but if you hang around Lake Mead, it seems like you'd be getting used to a morning jolt.

At 7:22 local time, they had a magnitude 2.1 event (in red at right). On Monday morning, it was a 2.3 quake (in yellow at right).

Both quakes are officially in Nevada but the margin of error in their locations is large enough that they could have been in Arizona. Regardless, they seem to be part of a continuing spate of small earthquakes around this part of the lake. [right, location map from USGS]

BLM panel wants northern Arizona lands open to mining claims

"The Bureau of Land Management's Resource Advisory Council voted 9 to 2 to recommend to U.S. Department of Interior that more than 1 million acres of land surrounding the Grand Canyon remain open to mining claims," according to a story in the Kingman Daily Miner.

We had heard reports of this but Mohave County Supervisor Buster Johnson issued a press release after attending a RAC meeting last week.

The article says the Advisory Board is concerned that the Obama administration will designate the acreage as wildlands using the Antiquities Act to bypass action under consideration by Congress to lift the Secretary of Interior's withdrawal of the lands. [right, withdrawal blocks outlined in red. Credit, BLM]

Florence copper mining sides offer different housing estimates

The debate over a proposed in situ copper project in Florence has turned to conflicting reports on the potential for home building in the area. The SanTan Valley Today paper reports that "Southwest Value Partners, the California-based real estate investment firm behind the opposition Protect Our Water Our Future effort, issued a commissioned housing study on Aug. 22 that contends Phoenix metro-area foreclosures are dipping and job creation is recovering which will lead to greater future demand for new homes in Florence and surrounding areas."

This counters a study issued by copper company Curis Resources that concluded "there will be no need for additional lot development as it projected a four-decade supply in active, dormant, future-platted and announced future subdivisions in the surrounding area."

The Curis property had been proposed for copper mining by BHP but when the proposal was dropped, real estate interests planned on building homes on it. But then the real estate-driven recession hit, development plans soured, the price of copper rose dramatically, and Curis resurrected the copper recovery plan. [right, location map of Florence Copper Project. Credit, Curis Resources]

Owners of surrounding parcels fear loss of value of their lands for residential and commercial real estate development and are fighting the copper project.

Curis calculates the project area contains an estimated 2.84 billion lbs of copper and will produce 76-86 million lbs per year in full operation.

BLM Arizona plan includes utility-scale solar option

The Arizona office of BLM released a Draft Resource Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement for 1.4 million acres in southwest Arizona that includes the potential for utility-scale solar power plants and other land use alternatives on mineral development, recreation, and wilderness designations. BLM is taking public comment on the plan alternatives until Nov. 25, 2011.

"Those interested in a wide range of resource issues, such as livestock grazing, hunting, target shooting, off highway travel and access management, wilderness characteristics, wildlife, and utility-scale renewable energy and utility corridors are encouraged to review the draft plan and participate in this public process. The Draft RMP/EIS will be available for review online next week at: www.blm.gov/az/st/en/prog/planning/son_des.html."

Lake Mead quakes continue - M2.1

Arizona experienced another small quake, magnitude 2.1, this morning around 8:30 am local time under Lake Mead along the Nevada border.

It's in the same area as other, similar sized quakes have been occurring since this spring.

Preliminary damage report of Trinidad, Colorado M5.3 earthquake

The Colorado Geological Survey posted a preliminary damage report on last week's M5.3 earthquake near the town of Trinidad:

At 11:46 PM MDT on August 22, 2011, a Mw 5.3 earthquake was recorded by U.S. Geological Survey seismometers and located the epicenter approximately 9 miles (+/- 7.8 miles) WSW of Trinidad, Colorado. Early reports by local news media indicated that significant damage to buildings had occurred in the towns of Segundo and Valdez, 15 miles west of Trinidad on Colorado State Highway 12. Prior to the Mw 5.3 event, three smaller events were also recorded in the same vicinity, the largest being an Mw 4.6 event at 5:30 PM MDT.

On the morning of August 23rd, the Colorado Geological Survey dispatched geologists to the area to document the damage related to the largest earthquake in Colorado within the last 44 years. Locations with observed structural damage included (from most severe to least): Segundo, Valdez, Cokedale, and Trinidad.

[right, the front of this brick building in Segundo Colorado collapsed, sending debris onto State Highway 12. Note the crushed mailbox. Figure 8 in the report.]

[co-posted on StateGeologists blog]

Groundwater in Arizona's alluvial basins

Arizona's alluvial basins have suffered an overall storage loss of 74.5 million acre-feet of water since their development began, according to a study published by the USGS, representing both gains and losses to from the groundwater system.

"Groundwater withdrawals accounted for the largest share of the water budget, with nearly 2.4 million acre-ft per year withdrawn from the study area in recent years. Evapotranspiration from groundwater was estimated at nearly 1.3 million acre-ft per year" from the more than 73,000 square miles of alluvial basins in Arizona.


Ref: Tillman, F.D, Cordova, J.T., Leake, S.A., Thomas, B.E., and Callegary, J.B., 2011, Water availability and use pilot; methods development for a regional assessment of groundwater availability, southwest alluvial basins, Arizona: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2011-5071, 118 p. and online appendix.

Likely Earth fissure continues to grow in Cochise County

The possible Earth fissures on Van Ness Rd in Cochise County have grown dramatically since the beginning of the month. AZGS geologist Mike Mahan reports that the west segment extended 183 feet between August 5 and August 19. The east segment extended a further 239 feet.

Local residents are in a debate with the county over who is responsible for maintaining and repairing the road. Some residents brought out heavy equipment and filled in much of the rift, but subsequent rains appear to have washed the fill into deeper stretches, leaving the road pretty much as it was before. [right, Van Ness Rd on August 19. Photo by Mike Mahan]

Constraints on copper supplies

Analysts with Macquarie Research make the case that copper supply shortages will lead to higher prices.

"Since 2004, only around 1.45 million tons [per year] of new supply have been brought online."

A decade ago, predictions were for addition of more than 7 million tons of produce but only about 20% of that has actually under construction or operational according to the study.

In a financial presentation at the end of June, Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold shared the figure at bottom right, showing that while stocks of copper have risen in the past two years, they are still well below historical amounts. Freeport projects production of 1.2 billion pounds of copper in 2011 from its U.S. operations, primarily in Arizona.

Post-Schultz fire flood plan depends on Forest Service

Plans to channel potential floodwaters around Flagstaff's Timberline neighborhood all rely on the U.S. Forest Service and our sense is that they may be constrained in taking action. Cyndy Cole's article in the Arizona (Flagstaff) Daily Sun says that of the 6 plans proposed:

• "None of the funding is guaranteed, and no major congressional earmark or other funding source is expected.
• Only one flood area out of about six drainage areas has explicit, well-defined flood-control plans -- the rest are yet to be decided.
• And all of the solutions rely on the U.S. Forest Service taking action to channel water from the Coconino National Forest (a step it has not promised)."

One challenge would seem to be whether the Forest Service can spend money on non-forest lands. A second one will be whether if Forest Service funds are used, that will trigger National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) requirements to study the potential impacts of the channels and other flood control measures. NEPA issues could be substantial and take an extensive period to resolve. [right, emergency channel construction in Aug. 2010. The light colored area on the mountain in the background is the Schultze fire burned area. My photo]

Read more: http://azdailysun.com/news/local/timberline-flood-plan-emerges/article_dc104796-ec25-5a59-b46b-4ed7ed59afc9.html#ixzz1WLgPVpkK

Arizona Cardinals science cheerleaders

Six of the Arizona Cardinals cheerleaders are pursuing science or engineering careers and took questions online last week about their stereotype-breaking lives.

Darlene Cavalier, the original Science Cheerleader, and my colleague at COPUS, organized the online event with the culmination being a video interview of the Cardinal scientists and engineers answering the questions last week. As soon as that is posted, I'll put out a notice.

There's a Arizona Cardinals page on the Science Cheerleader website, along with links to the other teams that include 100+ women scientists and engineers who also are cheerleaders.

Guidelines for Investigating Land Subsidence and Earth Fissure Hazards in Arizona

AZGS has published a set of guidelines for investigating land subsidence and earth fissure hazards in Arizona, that was compiled by the Arizona Land Subsidence Group. The AzLSG is an informal organization of geologists and engineers from industry, academia, and government who meet monthly to review and discuss technical issues. The report is online for free downloading or viewing.

The guidelines were developed over the past two years, drawn heavily from guidelines in Utah, California, and Nevada. From the introduction:

These guidelines provide professionals evaluating site-specific conditions in areas known or suspected to be subsiding with a standardized minimum level of investigation for land-subsidence and earth-fissure hazards. The guidelines do not include systematic descriptions of all available investigative techniques or topics, nor is it suggested that all techniques or topics are appropriate for every project. Variations in site conditions, project scope, economics, and level of acceptable risk may require that some topics be addressed in greater detail than is outlined in these guidelines. However, all elements of these guidelines should be considered in comprehensive land-subsidence and earth-fissure hazard investigations, and may be applied to any project site, large or small.

Ref: Suggested Guidelines for Investigating Land Subsidence and Earth Fissure Hazards in Arizona, 2011, by the Arizona Land Subsidence Interest Group, Arizona Geological Survey Contributed Report CR-11-D, 10p.

Potash and the environment - 5 volume reference set

The interest in potash is growing in Arizona as three companies carry out exploration programs east of Holbrook in what could be one of the largest recoverable deposits in the country. This week the Arizona Oil & Gas Conservation Commission issued four more permits for exploration core holes, to Dallas-based HNZ Potash.

A decade ago when potash supply met world demand and prices were low, the United Nations Environmental Program teamed up with the fertilizer industry (IFA) to publish five volumes that looked at a wide range of environmental factors related to potash and phosphate exploration, production, distribution, and use. All five are available online for downloading:

Environmental Aspects of Phosphate and Potash Mining
http://www.elaw.org/system/files/PotashMining.pdf

Mineral Fertilizer Use and the Environment
www.fertilizer.org/ifacontent/download/5407/85160/.../IFA-UNEP-Use.pdf

Mineral fertilizer production and the environment: a guide to reducing the environmental impact of fertilizer production
www.agriculturesnetwork.org/library/58480

The Fertilizer Industry, World Food Supplies and the Environment
http://www.google.com/search?q=The+Fertilizer+Industry%2C+World+Food+Supplies+and+the+Environment&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

Mineral Fertilizer Distribution and the Environment
IFA-UNEP (2000) Mineral Fertilizer Distribution and the Environment.pdf
http://globalpnetwork.net/resource/mineral-fertilizer-distribution-and-environment

Thanks to Kathy Hemenway for alerting us to these reports.

U.S. reliance on foreign uranium

"We [the U.S.] rely on imports for about 70% of our oil but foreign countries supply 95% of our uranium. And some of those suppliers are no more stable than certain OPEC members," according to Amir Adnani, CEO of Corpus Christi, Texas-based Uranium Energy Corporation (UEC) in an interview posted on Mineweb.com. "American power plants consume about 55 million pounds of the metal every year to generate 20% of America's electricity, yet the US produces only 3.5 million pounds, and US production has been falling." [right, uranium ore. Credit, USGS]

But the article concludes that the short term outlook for uranium demand and prices is "clouded" because supplies from decommissioning nuclear warheads will continue into 2013. However, if most of the nuclear power plants proposed around the world continue, and proposed uranium mines are delayed or cancelled, there could be a uranium shortage.

This relevant to Arizona because mining opponents argue that plentiful alternate sources of uranium exist to the deposits in northern Arizona, so the land can and should be withdrawn from exploration and development. Mining advocates argue that Arizona's deposits are some of the richest and most extensive in the nation.

Post-fire flooding reports issued for Wallow, Monument, & Horseshoe II fires

The USGS issued three reports on the potential for post-fire floods and debris flows areas burned by the Wallow, Monument, and Horseshoe II wildfires in Arizona.

Along with the reports, the USGS announced that "Working with the U.S. Forest Service and Cochise and Apache Counties, the USGS has installed new flood-warning gages in areas affected by recent flooding. The flood-warning gages will transmit by satellite a warning when the stream level reaches a predetermined height or when the water level changes rapidly."

"The location of the sites should give us 30-40 minutes advance warning if a major increase in runoff occurs," said Apache County Chief Deputy Brannon Eagar. "We’d liked to have more advance notice, but the lay of the land just wouldn’t permit it. In an emergency situation, every minute counts, and we’re grateful to have that advanced notification."

The data collected by the USGS are used by the National Weather Service to issue alerts and identify dramatic runoff changes in a given watershed.

They also posted a video of what is labelled a debris flow in Coronado National Memorial taken on August 8. However, Phil Pearthree at AZGS suggests that instead it is really an ash-laden flood. After viewing it, I agree. Watch and see what you think -

[update 8-27-11: the USGS agreed with our interpretation and relabeled the video but is not currently online]

Jetman flight over the Grand Canyon

After watching this, all the AZGS geologists here want one of these to use for field work.

Bullish predictions for copper and potash

Scotia Bank analysts say there are supply deficits (ie shortages) of copper and potash worldwide, that are pushing up potash prices substantially, and will exist for copper through 2012.

Mineweb.com says that in the August edition of Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index, analyst Patricia Mohr "Spot potash prices for overall sales in Southeast Asia and Brazil/Latin America are up 43%" year to year and can be expected to increase another $30-50 per ton. [right, potash salts. Credit, USGS]

Arizona's Holbrook basin is emerging as one of the more exciting potash areas in the world with significant exploration programs underway by three companies.

She says, "Copper remains in a supply deficit, that is world refined consumption exceeds supplies-a development expected to last through much of 2012." Arizona produces nearly 2/3 of the copper used in the U.S.

Gold drops $150 in two days

After briefly topping $1900 an ounce on Monday, gold has dropped steadily for the past two days, closing at $1754 [right]. Silver has taken a proportional price hit as well.

But copper, the lifeblood of Arizona's mineral industry, has been hovering pretty steadily around $4 per pound, plus or minus a few cents. Copper is more indicative of global industrial activity, rather than as a currency hedge.

Some pundits were predicting gold rocketing to $2000 or more due to economic uncertainties, but others have been warning of a market correction. So, is this a correction, or response to positive developments in the economic sector?

Legislature's Sunset Review will decide if AZGS continues

The statutory authorization for the Arizona Geological Survey ends June 30, 2012. The Arizona Legislature is beginning a Sunset Review of AZGS to determine if the agency should be continued, revised, consolidated, or terminated at that time. This is standard procedure for all state agencies, commissions, and boards.

A Committee of Reference has been formed, co-chaired by Sen. John Nelson and Rep. Kate Brophy McGee, that is reviewing AZGS goals, objectives, and accomplishments. The committee will make a recommendation to the full Legislature no later than December 1, 2011, on our future. The Legislature will then take action when they convene in January 2012. The Survey could be extended for up to 10 years.

AZGS responded this week to a set of 17 questions from the Committee about our efficiency, productivity, achievement of goals, and possible options to privatize Survey functions, or consolidate AZGS with other state bodies. The Committee of Reference will hold at least one public hearing on the future of AZGS, probably in September or October. This will allow an opportunity for you to weigh in with your opinions or recommendations about the Survey.

I'll post updates here and on the AZGS web site about the hearing date and developments.