Saturday, April 24, 2010

Global oil shortfall as early as 2012?

 Two recent reports paint a scary picture about the world oil supply.   The Joint Operational Environment (JOE 2010) study from the Dept. of Defence concludes that, "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD."

Second, a report by Kuwaiti oil experts revised the Hubbert peak oil model to consider the impacts of technology, politics, and other factors.  A brief description on Science Daily said they "evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year."

My view of the Hubble curve is that it may work for individual basins or simple production models but that globally, there are too many other factors that make it unrealistic. So, this new approach may have merits.

The JOE study covers a wide range of topics and "provides a perspective on future trends, shocks, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders and other leaders and professionals in the national security field."

Ref: Nashawi et al. Forecasting World Crude Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Model. Energy & Fuels, 2010; 100204085653081 DOI: 10.1021/ef901240p

1 comment:

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